Leadership in a Time of Uncertainty

COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges any leader will face in their career. There are no certainties. The scope, scale and significance is unknowable, and the secondary effects on the economy are potentially even greater than the outbreak itself.

How will you meet that leadership challenge?

At one extreme you could take the Trump approach:

• Portray it as not that bad and going to go away soon (described as magical thinking)

• Congratulate yourself on your performance so far

• Ignore unpleasant realities (the reason US count is so low is because of a catastrophic failure of testing - some states can only test 10 people a day)

• Make vague promises of help on the way (without clarity for people as to what to do)

• Send out a confusing message about a policy decision that had to be clarified minutes later

Or you can take the approach of Greg Foran, the new CEO at Air New Zealand:

• Demonstrate personal sacrifice and responsibility by taking a pay cut

• Suspend earning guidance with the honest acknowledgement that the situation was worse than it was a week ago

• Projecting calm in the present: "We're going to work closely with [everyone] and just sensibly chart a course, literally week by week, month by month, to deal with the conditions that we're now faced with."

• Change policies boldly so that customers are not disadvantaged (being able to transfer flights without cost)

• Project confidence in the future. On the pay cut he said “We're all in this together. I want to demonstrate right up front that I'm prepared to do what's necessary in order for us to ensure that this business is going to be a wonderful business in the years ahead."

Let’s be honest: no one knows exactly what to do and there is no right answer. As leaders we have to go to our very core and be prepared to show our real character.

I went to school briefly with Greg Foran in Hamilton. I remember him as a straightforward, modest, capable kind of guy. Air New Zealand (and the country) is lucky to have a leader of his character. 

As for Trump, as someone noted, every aspect of this crisis now and in the future would have been handled better if someone else had been in charge.

The leadership challenge is that we’re in uncharted waters, and we have to be very deliberate. In these circumstances, it’s best to err on the side of caution. As an article in The Atlantic said, cancel everything, and for a few days people might be angry with you and accuse you of over-reacting. But in the end, if cancelling and closing is the prudent thing to do, then it’s the right thing to do.

Keeping the virus contained for as long as possible is going to hurt, but it’s a leader’s tough trade-off between certain pain now and quite possibly much greater pain later. When the pandemic has subsided (and it will), we’ll be glad we took big actions. As George W Bush’s Homeland Security Secretary said in 2007 “Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate”.

Stay informed and take the recommended measures to keep safe and well. As our government says “kindness is an incredibly powerful way to show you are united against COVID-19”. Be kind.