Upsets

Most of us are probably aware that its been a year that has contained a few surprises, including my first experience of an earthquake in Auckland (I never want to see again the water in the swimming pool sloshing around like that).Not much you can do about earthquakes, but how do you guard yourself against the unexpecteds like Leicester City, Brexit, Chicago Cubs, Ireland and of course Trump?The short answer is not to listen to experts.  There’s plenty of literature around on how wrong they generally are. At the moment there’s also a lot of literature on why “they” (not often “I”) got it wrong. In fact, most experts’ opinions on most things are in the realm of weather forecasting: statistically, the most reliable information about tomorrow’s weather is today’s.The second answer is to be aware of your own prejudices (which literally means to judge before). Our prejudices can lead us into the trap of success where we don’t think we need to do anything different.Third, it’s obviously impossible to know what the unexpected will be, so don’t try to run a scenario for every possibility. But do some basic preparation: last night we assembled our first ever “getaway bag” as recommended by Civil Defence. It felt a bit unnecessary, but actually it’s a pretty good idea – a 5 minute investment in preparedness.Finally, when a disaster like Trump happens, the first thing to open up is your mind. No one (least of all him) knows how this will pan out, there are so many complexities and unpredictables. So, face the current reality squarely (because there is no “i” in denial!) but remember that nothing ever pans out as well or as badly as we expect.In short: think, but don’t worry.  It’s not only futile, it also ruins your day.  As Mark Twain said “I’ve had a lot of worries in my life, most of which never happened”.