What will emerge when the fog lifts?
There is a lot of talk about the need for reinvention, using the opportunity of this crisis to reset yourself and shake things up. In my last blog, I suggested it was a good time to discard the things that no longer serve you. But that’s not quite the same as launching into new business models – at least, not yet.
I think it’s too soon to be making big bets. Right now, it’s the equivalent of being in 1939 and trying to predict how the world will look in 1945. To continue that analogy, we’re still very much in the ‘fog of war’. As Wikipedia says, this is a reality in all military conflict, and especially at an individual level: the term reflects “the pure confusion of direction, location, and perspective on a battlefield. Officers and soldiers become separated, orders become confused and subject to revision with poor communication. Sounds and vision are limited from the perspective of the individual and may not be easily resolved, resulting in a continuing uncertainty, a perceptual ‘fog’". In other words, nobody knows what the hell is going on outside their particular piece of territory.
When we think about how we emerge from the pandemic, we have to consider the immediate future – the next 30 days as we (hopefully) cycle through the levels. Our focus will be around logistics and above all else safety.
My sense is that it will be 90 days before the fog of war has lifted. By then, we’ll start to see the effects on the terrain: we’ll have a clearer picture of the damage and the opportunities across our customers, competitors and suppliers. Just as damage to customers will affect us, damage to competitors may create space for us. Customer demand may change. For example, demand is booming at a company that supplies awnings and canopies as people realised that if they’re going to be in lockdown, they’d like to be comfortable outside. Lockdown-related opportunities will be short term, the felt need will ease as we get beyond COVID-19’s reach. But be realistic: there’s not much logic to a kitchen manufacturer’s opinion that demand will boom because people can’t spend on overseas holidays. They’re not what the economist calls near substitutes. You’re more likely to see an increase in domestic tourism (and in a time of high and wide job insecurity, it’s a stretch to imagine kitchen renovations are going to be a high priority).
So, what should our posture be? How should we hold ourselves when we look out over the terrain at the lifting fog? I think we should face the world with a confident posture, which my friend Ross described as being “staunch – prepared to go sideways but never backwards”. We don’t need ill-considered action for the sake of action, we need to be deliberate and purposeful. We do that by actively thinking and talking about things like:
Potential for new and/or improved offerings for our customers, responding to their needs coming out of COVID-19. Are there opportunities in areas adjacent to our offering – services that might be in the same family as ours where we could re-orient or change our capability?
Apparent weakness in competitor offerings or in their business viability. How can we offer their customers and clients a better deal? How can we cooperate with competitors to mutual advantage?
Changes in demand. In our industry, the physical workshop model has been struggling in terms of effectiveness. Restrictions mean that it’s not viable at all for a while, and simply putting a workshop online doesn’t cut it. We’ve developed a lot of IP around effective blended training that cuts out workshops altogether. We’ll be pushing forward energetically with that.
These are the questions that all of us in leadership roles should be asking and debating so that when the fog lifts, we’re ready to advance with purpose and intensity. We may well need to re-invent, but we’ll do so consciously. We’ll be deliberately radical.
Every few years I get to use the key learning from my thesis, which is around what makes strategy successful. It’s where intent and capability meet opportunity. And it starts with opportunity. As a leadership group, you need to answer the question “What’s emerging – what are the opportunities?”. Then what do we need to do to pursue those opportunities – what capability have we got and what do we need to develop? And finally, is that what we want to do? How does this line up with our long term vision?
The interesting times have just begun.